Not necessarily in this order:
1 Gove wins Conservative leadership election and proves wholly incapable of uniting the party. Conservative party splits into right/far-right group (incorporating UKIP, BNP and the rest) and more centrist group
2 The UK has an early general election, whose campaign will be bitter and divisive, which no party (however reconstituted) will win, resulting in long term stalemate and indecision in government
3 US punishes the UK for leaving the EU by terminating the ‘special relationship’, withdrawing various services, and failing to provide support on specific issues which the UK might previously have expected and received
4 EU punishes the UK for leaving by only agreeing to dire exit conditions, pour encourager les autres
5 Nicola Sturgeon calls Scottish referendum to leave UK, having negotiated with the EU a decision in principle to accept Scotland’s application to join the EU, when made
6 Major businesses leave London, and elsewhere in England, to relocate in mainland Europe, though some may stay, pending 5
7 Scotland leaves UK and joins EU
8 Remaining major businesses relocate to Scotland or mainland Europe; English and foreign businesses, large and small, and individuals * relocate to Scotland, all welcomed with open arms; more go to Irish republic
9 Northern Ireland [voted remain] gives in and decides religious differences more tolerable than border controls; joins Irish Republic
The resulting “United Kingdom” consists of England and Wales, minus most of its international corporate businesses, minus some of its national businesses and many of its SMEs, and minus many of its more talented citizens. But…
… plus a wide range of organisations and individuals who harbour long term resentment which the government is incapable of addressing due to its indecision (see 2) and lack of resources:
> organisations which are ‘stuck’ in England—businesses that cannot afford to relocate (or for which it is commercially suicidal), institutions (such as universities) and so on;
> cities and areas which voted significantly to remain—London, of course, but also Bristol, Liverpool and the rest;
> and, of course, individual people, particularly the young, who will have the consequences of this decision visited on them for the rest of their lives.
The massive reduction in tax income for the government means that many of the vulnerable and underprivileged simply go to the wall and die, either because the money to pay for public health and social services is simply not there, and/or the marketisation of heath services continues, rendering them unaffordable to many. Social and arts organisations fold. The Trident programme of weapons of mass destruction continues at ever greater cost.
* “The best predictor of a vote for remain [in an English area] is the proportion of residents who have a degree”—Guardian [*1]. This will weight the cadre of those moving to Scotland towards the more intelligent and better off.
[*1] EU referendum results in full – find out how your area voted (Guardian, 24 june 2016)
> blog: Why the UK’s EU referendum is undemocratic